Republicans are preparing to funnel money and personnel into a handful of select Senate races in an effort to take back control of that chamber, while Democrats are looking to districts won by President Joe Biden as a way to return to the House majority.
The campaigns are expected to be particularly tight, with the state and national parties spending millions of dollars, all against the backdrop of presidential campaigns.
It is possible that the House and Senate will continue to be divided between the parties, but political observers see the prospect of a major change. If current trends continue throughout the year, the Senate could well shift from Democratic to Republican control, and the House of Representatives could shift from the GOP to the Democrats.
The margins are narrow. Democrats in the House of Representatives need to win only five seats to regain power, and Republicans in the Senate need to win only two in November.
The Senate map for 2024 favors Republicans, who are defending 11 seats compared to 23 for Democrats. The GOP has a decent chance of picking up its two needed seats in states that have voted more conservatively in recent years, such as Ohio and Montana. The two Democratic incumbents, Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester, will also be campaigning in states where former President Donald Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020.
In the House of Representatives, GOP leaders have launched an impeachment investigation into Biden, which could threaten the reelection chances of 18 Republicans representing swing districts run by Biden.
Republicans also oppose new redistricting maps in the South. Democrats have the advantage of gaining three seats there – in Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana – and potentially gaining two to six seats in New York from the GOP.
House Republicans have been trying all year to manage their slim majority and unite behind a Republican Speaker of the House. It took Kevin McCarthy 15 rounds of voting to win the gavel last January. Then, 10 months later, eight Republicans and Democrats voted to remove him from office.
Not only was the move accompanied by three weeks of internal infighting, but all legislative work, including raising government funding before the fast-approaching deadline, was suspended. House Republicans finally chose Representative Mike Johnson of Louisiana as their speaker.